by Imran Ali
January 5, 2009 at 9:24 am · Filed under Mobile messaging 2.0
Every quarter sees the setting of new records in the volume of text messaging and each holiday season a test of every cellco’s resilience and availability in delivering billions of Christmas and New Year’s messages.
Australia’s Telstra predicted 76m text messages would see in 2009 down under, averaging around one thousand per second!
Interestingly, in breaking down their predictions for the holiday season, there are some curious usage and ethnographic snippets that’re more interesting that the ‘12m burgers sold’ message we usually see from cellco’s PR teams…
- Only 600′000 photo messages were expected to be sent.
- Only ‘tens of thousands’ of video calls are anticipated.
- Most messaging takes place between friends with only 2/3 of mothers receiving calls from their kids and only 40% of men contacting their folks!
I’m not sure what to glean from the generational non-communication between Aussies and their offspring, but it’s unsurprising that video and photo messaging represent only a small part of the total volume of messaging. The technologies, products and services have been around for the best part of a decade, but the usage patterns indicate that photo and video messaging don’t really appeal to a broad demographic.
This is reflected in how video messaging is used on the web too - with the volume of instant and status messaging eclipsing Skype video calls and clever video services such as 12seconds and Seesmic.
Read more at Beep beep - New Year text messages to hit 1000 per second…
by Imran Ali
January 3, 2009 at 8:02 am · Filed under Mobile messaging 2.0
How very polite - rumours are emerging that the Israeli military has been employing ‘roof knocking’ techniques to let occupants of a soon-to-be-bombed home know that they have minutes to abandon their homes and lives before the brave boys of the IAF begin remodelling.
The phone, voicemail and SMS messages are designed to warn occupants and minimise civilian casualties at the intended target. Gruesomely, it’s more impressive that the Israeli military has the neccessary contact information, rather than the fact they’re using it to alert potential victims.
Sadly, what’s probably more neccessary in the propaganda fog of this war is the deployment of an Ushahidi-like service to chronicle the real experiences of Gazans, attacks in the Strip and the effect of rocket attacks in Southern Israel.
Read more at Israeli’s use phone, SMS to warn Gazans of bomb..
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by Imran Ali
January 1, 2009 at 8:07 pm · Filed under Carriers, Communication, Emerging Markets, Hardware, Health
While we all accept that cellcos are bloodsuckers, last month’s edition of Wired revealed that scientists at UCLA’s California NanoSystems Institute are experimenting with cellphones that can actually test your blood!
Before you begin to panic, this groundbreaking new technology doesn’t quite literally suck your blood, but lighting a blood sample that a cellphone’s camera can then digitise and interpret using software developed by the institute’s scientists.
The technique displaces the large and expensive human and technological processes previously required to analyse blood samples, opening the way portable low-cost and almost real-time diagnosis, potentially in areas previously inaccessible to healthcare professionals. Now imagine coupling such a device to location data, air quality sensors and other environmental data - there’s potential here to learn much more about the implications of environmental context on blood makeup.
The implications of the institute’s discovery aren’t limited to medicine, implying that cellphone manufacturers and cellcos are blind to the potential of connected, sensor-rich cellphones; almost criminally ignorant of designing devices or platform services that smooth the way for this type of innovation to find widespread use.
Cellcos in particular are fearful of being commoditised down to a dumb pipe - well, they’re not creating much value at the ends of those pipes…
Read more at Scientists hack Cellphone to Analyze Blood, Detect Disease, Help Developing Nations…
by Paul Ruppert
December 30, 2008 at 10:38 am · Filed under Apple, Events + Conferences, Mobile messaging 2.0, iPhone, predictions
The end of the year approaches (thank God) and requires the usual journalistic right of passage–predictions for the upcoming New Year in the mobile industry.
For Mobile Messaging 2.0’s reader audience, here’s my MM2 2009 Mobile Industry Predictions.
iPhon-ification Continues
Consider the following.
* Roughly 13 million iPhones were sold by Sept. 30, 2008—as recorded by Apple in their Q408 financials
* The iPhone store had 200 million downloads in the first 100 days, so 2MM downloads/day.
* Those 13 million iPhon-iacs downloaded approx the same number of apps in 30 days that 250 MM non-iPhone owners downloaded in 90 days.
* That’s a 60x multiple in terms of likelihood that an iPhon-iac (iPhone owner) will download an app than a non-iPhone owner.
*Conclusion: You need 780 MM non-iPhone owners–iPhon-ophobes?–with access to your app before you could match the actual reach of 13 MM iPhone owners
* 5500 apps in the App Store have created $1 Billion annual run rate in App Store revenue. Repeat afer me boys and girls: A billion dollars.
* Apple has leapt into second place worldwide in terms of smartphone sales with their Q4 figure of 6.9MM units sold, selling more iPhones than Blackberries. iPhones now own 17% of the worldwide smartphone market.
* With Wal-Mart’s recent announcement of the iPhone availability at the world’s largest retailer, the halo effect of the iPhone migrating to lower economic segments will only accelerate its market penetration, and continue the iPhon-ification of mobile.
Mobile will “reset”
With the rest of the world’s economy engaging in a ‘re-set’ over the coming year, the economics of the mobile business will have to be re-set within the minds of analysts and operators. GE CEO Jeff Immelt stated in November that the economic crisis projecting into 2009 “represents a re-set, …with the biggest reset will be government involvement in the economy, and in the affairs of business, for better or worse.”
Incremental penetration of mobile communications across all economic segments will not abate, but the tough reality is the “mobile money party” is likely to be over. Savage choices by consumers will be made with a higher unemployment rate by mid-year, and ARPU may decline precipitously in the coming months even with increasing gross net ads of subscribers. Yes, there still is a need for voice and data, but don’t expect double digit growth in the segment for sometime.
The Emerging US Broadband Gap
In the US, incoming President Obama’s initial inclinations are to make a big government ‘infrastructure’ investment to counter attack the recession. Let’s hope that it goes beyond bricks and “bridges to no where” to include digital bridges as well. The US woefully lags behind other nations in the upload and down load speeds of its wireless networks, and even broad mobile functionality as compared to other country markets around the world. Why isn’t anyone talking about how we should be investing in faster mobile networks, whether as part of broader Wi fi coverage or wide area mobile networks? They will be. Soon. JFK got elected on the back of the “missile gap”, expect some enterprising American politicians to start bringing attention to this sorely overlooked topic of the mobile bits and bytes infrastructure in 2009.
Interoperability: Part 2
Thirteen years ago interoperability surrounding text messaging had just been implemented in Europe, with the US soon to reach that same stage of development. Under the covers, messaging now has a de facto hub and spoke structure between aggregators and carriers. Look for that to solidify, not to the benefit of say MMS, but to its detriment. Innovations such as Syniverse’s IM SMS interoperability hub will ignite the broader offerings of mobile IM by carriers, greater usage by consumers, thus narrowing the offer of MMS to the niche of picture transfer, and even there it doesn’t always work. Look for big steps to be taken for IM and SMS interoperability in 09.
Regulatory Chill over Mobile Marketing
There are growing fissures in the mobile marketing business model. The announcement by Verizon in October to increase the fee paid by others to deliver into their network for the purpose of mobile delivered advertising, aka “standard rate termination fees” has caused a significant chill in the market. Not necessarily with the operators, nor the consumer, but the guys who pay the freight: Brands and advertisers who see an unstable pricing model by a core supplier as a real risk and big uncertainty. Notwithstanding the growth of mobile marketing as well as its huge potential, the expectation that 2009 is the year of mobile marketing may be extended. Layer on that Capital Hill, as well as state level Attorney General offices, are getting more interested in this segment, its costs structures and business model of mobile advertising. If the ecosystem isn’t careful, 2009 might bring a cold blast from the likes of Wisconsin Senator Herb Kohl who chairs the Senate Commerce Committee.
China will finally launch the iPhone—sometime in 09
Apple is facing the dilemma of a choice between the Dragon and the Deep Blue Sea. Either get into the world’s largest mobile phone market (currently nearing 700 million subscribers) or break the imposed revenue sharing model with operators currently in effect in other countries around the world. Having worked and lived in China, as well as negotiated with China Mobile and China Unicom, when I see quotes as those from GSM Asia in Macau last November: “”Secondly, our business model does not entail sharing revenue with terminal producers — we don’t share revenue. That’s a Chinese rule,” said a China Mobile executive. “All it is right now, on the iPhone and Apple, is that the firm welcomes their approach.” Leads me to believe Apple has 365 days to give, which they will.
Strong Balance Sheets, Emerging Corporate Venturing and Successful Enterpreneurs
2009 will bring the close of many VCs. It’s inevitable, there has been many marginal funds that are not going to last, many of which were making early stage investments, some in mobile. The contraction within the VC industry, as well as the general contraction in the economy will spur an emergence of more venture activity by Corporate Venture and Innovations Groups. During tough times, leaders move to consolidate their industry position as well as ‘catch a march’ or ‘lengthen their stride’ against their rivals, and as the vacume increases from diminished venture fund activity, expect to see an increase in large private and public companies to expand their activity in venture funding. Those that have strong balance sheets will lead this effort. One result may be the lessening of ’serial entrepreneurs’ who have little or no mobile experience, and instead look to see C level changes as both VCs are forced to make savage choices and corporate innovations groups leverage their investment by placing seasoned and successful entrepreneurs back at the helms of mobile companies–meaning older, grayer, and more experienced executives who have navigated and successfully survived past recessions.
Operating Efficiencies
In the spirit of Sequoia’s notice to its venture investments, I’m cutting back by 30% in my predictions this year to conserve my muse resources, demonstrating higher efficiencies and lower burn rates, reflecting a ’shrink to grow’ mentality. Of course that begs the question of my impact and productivity….
Happy New Year to all the readers and supporters of Mobile Messaging 2.0. May your immediate and intermediate time lines be stable, and your over the horizon be prosperous.
Or as the Chinese say: gōng xǐ fā cái !
by Ewan Spence
December 29, 2008 at 1:42 pm · Filed under Mobile messaging 2.0
Congratulations to NPR (National Public Radio) on choosing the humble text message (or SMS as us Europeans tend to use) as the technology of 2008. I’m sure that we’ll see a lot of commentators online bemoaning how backwards the choice is, and wondering why some shiny piece of technology hasn’t been chosen.
Taking a step back, I think this is a really good call. Just because a technology has been around for some time does not mean
This is a choice that many companies are making in the modern world, one of placing software services over the hardware that runs them. Our shiny toys are becoming more like fundamental objects than gateways. Text messaging has had a long time to mature, but it is universal, available on pretty much any handset, can operate between different carriers, different makes of phones, and works at an international level. What’s not to love about it?
As the cost of communication devices continues to drive towards the bottom line, the issues of inter-operability and simplicity will become more and more important. Qualities that already apply to text messaging. Thanks in part to the iphone, but also the rising tide of smartphone devices selling into the US market, text messaging in America is starting the climb to the volume seen in Europe and Asia.
Web 2.0 services are starting to use text messaging as a means of mobile delivery; micro blogging services like Twitter expose more people to the usefulness of the short direct message every day; Google’s SMS clipboard is one use of text as a software service; there are countless others.
Sure the technorati might want us to proclaim a certain cupertino device as the gift of 2008 that keeps on giving, but back in the real world it’s results that matter. And Text messaging is providing a result to millions, if not billions of users.
NPR called this one right.
by Ewan Spence
December 20, 2008 at 10:47 am · Filed under Mobile messaging 2.0
Strand Consult have laid out, in one of the clearest forms yet, why having the Apple iPhone on your network might not be the best thing in the world. While the online fans of the iPhone are legion (literaly), there still needs to be a business case drawn for any adopter, be it an individual, company, or network. In their own words:
Strand Consult is not in the business of creating hype around technology, our business is to explain to mobile operators how the future market will evolve and how to make money for their shareholders.
…so their ten points on the iPhone are well worth reading in this report. You can read the details here, but let me break out their main topics, and do a little cliff notes of my own thoughts on each area.
1. Limited Market Segment
With 6 billion people in the world, 4 billion handsets, and 1 billion personal computers, even the massive sales of the iPhone (upwards of ten million) is impressive yet still a very small drop in the ocean. And while no single handset rival matches sales, Nokia could argue that the N95-1 N95-2 N95-3 (and so on) are outselling if you add the unit sales.
2. Marketing the iPhone takes away staff from more profitable sectors.
3. Does this leave a gap for competitors to go after forgotten users of the iPhone ready network in each country?
4. While the data usage of the iPhone is promoted, most people are switching to the iphone from other data handsets, not coming into the network specifically for that.
5. The iPhone uses a lot of mobile data – and it’s flat rate so there is litte recompnese on the network.
Although I would say that this is a transition period and in 18-24 months time this point will be much less valid.
6. The iPhone pulls down ‘regular web pages’ and not ‘;mobile’ pages driving data bandwidth up by up to ten times.
See the same argument as in point 5.
7. Apple’s App store gives no fees to the operator (in the same way as Nokia share revenue via the N-Gage on device store), and has a kickback from the data tariffs.
In short they regard networks as dumb pipes moving 1’s and 0’s, almost a necessary evil.
8. I’ll quote this one “our research shows that there is not one single Apple partner in the world among the mobile operators that has increased their overall turnover, profit and market share due to the iPhone.”
Blimey. Bet Apple are profiting though.
9. The unlocking handset market worldwide is huge for unofficial handsets.
Well, what do you expect when you create a drought in the marketplace? Profiteering happens.
10. Other Operators and MVNO’s are directly benefiting from (9) without having to invest in all the other iPhone structure requested by Cupertino.
It’s fair to say that the cost of a mobile phone to a network is not usually one of the main topics of covnersation, but Apple was always one of the few companies that could have been a game changer. Instead they played the current system, and by Strands accounts played it well. To be honest I think any manufacturer would be happy to deal with networks in the way that Apple does, and as times get tight in 2009 we may some pressure applied by Google and Nokia for their smartphones, in a similar style.
But the networks, with half an eye on churn and costs per user, are going to be in a tougher place, and do need to balance everything out. The iPhone is inherently unbalancing and could be a millstone for some networks in 2009.
by Imran Ali
December 17, 2008 at 8:53 am · Filed under Mobile Payments, Mobile messaging 2.0
The iPhone App Store has suffered criticism in some quarters for being dominated by consumer, social media and entertainment driven applications; a criticism that’s unfair in my opinion.
The first generation of applications has been driven by exploiting the iPhone’s unique gestural and locative novelties, great for showing off the capabilities of the device - and the imagination of app developers. Though this is perhaps alienating to small businesses and enterprisem who might see the store as a garden of expensive toys, the developer community is essentially findings its feet, before turning to more enduring and lucrative areas.
(Personally, I contend no application is as useful and as much a ‘killer-app’ as the combination of Safari and unlimited data…)
I think 2009 will see developers begin to movefully explore utalitarian apps and it seems Innerfence is one such app studio that will be leading the charge, notably with their Credit Card Terminal application, handily priced outside the 99¢ temperate zone of many application!
Credit Card Terminal essentially enables merchants to process credit card transactions simply by entering a customer’s card details, without needing dedicated terminals or wired connections, issuing receipts by email to customers…actually the experience sounds a lot like the staff with mobile payment terminals in Apple’s own retail stores. Perhaps along with Innerface’s 1000-strong customer base (including artists, locksmiths, car rental agents and jewellers), Apple themselves may become interested…?
Innerface’s work could help to shift the iPhone beyond early adopters into a very mainstream device for small businesses. Indeed, perhaps as a default bundled application, could Apple evolve into a rival to Paypal and Google Checkout?
by Imran Ali
December 16, 2008 at 8:47 am · Filed under Mobile messaging 2.0
A troika of energy-related stories over the last week indicate some curious trends in energy and powergeneration which may be relevant to mobile device in coming years.
First up, Tahir Cagin - a nanotech researcher at Texas A&M University - discovered recently that certain types of piezoelectric material (similar to the wristwatches powered by hand movements) can convert energy at high efficiencies when produced at nano-scale sizes.
Cagin has discovered a sweet-spot, around 21 nanometers in thickness that yields this kind of efficiency, suggesting that small form factor electronics. There’s potential to construct cellphones powered by the sound waves created by users engaged in voice calls.
Closer to market is the GettaGrip Musclephone which can be full charged simply by squeezing the attached ‘grips’ for around forty seconds, giving users a micro-workout while juicing up their phones!
With piezoelectrics finding their way into mainstream applications - like the Tokyo subway’s flooring - and loopy products such as the GettaGrip, it appears that some genuine alternatives are on the horizon for powering the long-heralded goals of ‘all-day computing‘ and communication.
Read more about Tahir Cagin’s fascinating research at Science Daily.
by Imran Ali
December 15, 2008 at 12:01 am · Filed under Micropayment, Mobile Payments, iPhone
In the past week, there’s been some interesting public debate on the pricing of iPhone applications - indeed, the authors of CoffeeBuzz (covered here on Friday) felt their $3.99 price point would help set higher price expectations and some sustainable revenues.
Earlier in the week, Craig Hockenberry wrote an open-letter to Steve Jobs outlining the reasons why a 99¢ price expectation required ‘hits’ to succeed commercially. Good iPhone designers and developers can cost around $150-200/hour so, for example, a three man-month project can cost $80′000, requiring a minimum of 115′000 units to be sold before the project reaches break-even.
This, coupled with the limited promotional flexibility of the App Store, means that larger, more complex projects are laden with commercial risk, which can only be mitigated by raising the pricing floor to several dollars at least.
However, Peter Cooper later posted an analysis of the popularity of apps vs their price, concluding that there’s little statistical evidence that cheaper apps lead to higher unit sales…unless they’re free!
Indeed, Cooper’s analysis illustrates that 99¢ apps’ slight advantage in volume sales at highest popularity level, they would be beaten in overal revenue by apps priced above 99¢. This indicates there’s some price elasticity for iPhone users and perhaps the issues lie in marketing and PR rather than pricing.
David Barnard, in a response to Hockenberry’s piece, outlines some of the non-App Store marketing and PR approaches he took in the launch of his AppCubby suite. Barnard concludes that marketing spend should be targetted ‘off-store’ in keeping an app in the Top 50 on the store.
Each of the three positions represents some interesting data points on the spectrum of iPhone development and marketing, suggesting that design/development talent is perhaps not in abundance; marketeers and Apple are still figuring out effective marketing models; users are still hesitant about paid applications, though less sensitive about procing levels, once they’ve made the choice to buy.
Read more at Craig Hockeberry’s Ringtone Apps & Peter Cooper’s 99 Cent iPhone Apps Not Significantly More Popular…
by Imran Ali
December 13, 2008 at 6:10 pm · Filed under Locative, iPhone
Yesterday saw the release of an intriguing iPhone app for coffee afficianados - Kisky Media’s CoffeeBuzz, inspired by the volume of Twitter users who like to share the fact they’re currently engaged in a caffeinated beverage.
The app enables users to…
- use the iPhone’s locative abilities (GPS, wifi, cell triangulation) to locate coffee shops in the vicinity, as well as share your favourite haunts.
- show what nearby CoffeeBuzz users are drinking.
- microblog your current location & beverage with other CoffeeBuzz users, or Twitter your beverage, along with location.
The user experience is surprisingly simple, requiring no complex configuration, letting users get straight to the fun in a weird inversion of the oft-quoted ‘locative coffee shop coupon’ example telco execs like to pitch! Though sadly, my favorite chai tea wasn’t listed in the available options 
Like, Smule’s Ocarina, CoffeeBuzz’s ostensible playfullness belies a powerful network effect, some locative smarts and the potential for incremental revenues. Creators Katie Lips and Paul Stringer - also cofounders of Treasuremytext - hope that moving beyond the 99¢ price can make the app sustainable, even with a modest userbase, but that the platform opens opportunities to partner with coffee brands and coffee shop owners. SBUX anyone?
Like Treasuremytext, perhaps what’s more interesting than the app itself, is the story of the app’s creation. The team was recently commissioned - by Liverpool’s International Centre for Digital Content - to create an iPhone development training courss, sharing its insights in a 30-page report that covers concept, strategy, design, development, App Store deployment and marketing.
CoffeeBuzz is currently available for the price of a good latte, for $3.99 at the iTunes App store; also, The Making of CoffeeBuzz is freely downloadable as a 6mb PDF.
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